{
  "as_of": "2026-10-02",
  "observed": {
    "france_gdp_2025_million_eur": 2991055.9,
    "euro_area_gdp_2025_million_eur": 15852835.5,
    "france_share_euro_area_gdp_pct": 18.87,
    "france_real_gdp_growth_2025_pct": 0.8,
    "france_debt_2026_q1_million_eur": 3536067.7,
    "france_debt_2026_q1_pct_gdp": 117.6,
    "france_yield_2026_08_pct": 4.0,
    "germany_yield_2026_08_pct": 3.185,
    "france_germany_spread_2026_08_bp": 81.5,
    "period": "2025",
    "spain_exports_to_france_million_eur": 55788.5,
    "share_of_spain_exports_pct": 14.4,
    "spain_imports_from_france_million_eur": 38446.9,
    "share_of_spain_imports_pct": 8.7,
    "source_note": "Datos declarados de Aduanas; tabla acumulada enero-diciembre de 2025."
  },
  "forecasts": {
    "ec_spring_2026": {
      "france_real_gdp_growth_pct": {
        "2026": 0.8,
        "2027": 1.1
      },
      "france_deficit_pct_gdp": {
        "2026": 5.1,
        "2027": 5.7
      },
      "france_debt_pct_gdp": {
        "2026": 118.1,
        "2027": 120.2
      },
      "france_interest_pct_gdp": {
        "2026": 2.6,
        "2027": 2.8
      }
    },
    "banque_de_france_september_2026": {
      "france_real_gdp_growth_pct": {
        "2026": 0.4,
        "2027": 0.9,
        "2028": 1.2
      },
      "france_unemployment_pct": {
        "2026": 8.3,
        "2027": 8.3,
        "2028": 8.0
      }
    }
  },
  "methodology": {
    "observed_vs_forecast": "Los valores de Eurostat y Aduanas son observados; las cifras 2026-2028 de la Comisión y Banque de France son previsiones.",
    "spread": "Rendimiento francés menos rendimiento alemán, multiplicado por 100 para expresarlo en puntos básicos.",
    "scenario_warning": "Los escenarios del artículo son condicionales y no probabilidades estimadas."
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "gdp",
      "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/nama_10_gdp?geo=FR&geo=EA20&na_item=B1GQ&unit=CP_MEUR&time=2025&lang=en",
      "sha256": "b61602dbfe762bd674dfb178404261505423fe2ef0bf03f3ecd2183958c77087"
    },
    {
      "id": "gdp_real",
      "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/nama_10_gdp?geo=FR&na_item=B1GQ&unit=CLV10_MEUR&time=2024&time=2025&lang=en",
      "sha256": "1559bde2fbf2faa33466187440a2b48df5e035003e77436ff4490aa332bf33cd"
    },
    {
      "id": "debt_ratio",
      "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/gov_10q_ggdebt?geo=FR&unit=PC_GDP&sector=S13&na_item=GD&time=2026-Q1&lang=en",
      "sha256": "a251c4c36296350e673f77b7048d19b2ef2b0b01cb86668cf459637262cff086"
    },
    {
      "id": "debt_eur",
      "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/gov_10q_ggdebt?geo=FR&unit=MIO_EUR&sector=S13&na_item=GD&time=2026-Q1&lang=en",
      "sha256": "b94308db0f1bb9642c1fbf0029728e7f63961c01a61d5f079aa104e1f6faa5ba"
    },
    {
      "id": "yields",
      "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/api/dissemination/statistics/1.0/data/irt_lt_mcby_m?geo=FR&geo=DE&sinceTimePeriod=2024-01&lang=en",
      "sha256": "98ae6bf17369a8cf32fef03dceab947863d709597e20f19f343ae59c05bc6df1"
    },
    {
      "id": "comex",
      "url": "https://comercio.gob.es/ImportacionExportacion/Informes_Estadisticas/Historico_Informes/Mensuales/2025/2025-12_Informe_Mensual_Comercio_Exterior.pdf",
      "sha256": "1e18ba37f2773cb97234d6cff520ab2b3609d3b7a879e6911e75c07e4c8f9fa6"
    },
    {
      "id": "ec_forecast",
      "url": "https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-surveillance-eu-member-states/country-pages-including-country-reports/france/economic-forecast-france_en",
      "sha256": "f4480f443eabeb8d8e88dd4e0dc794e53a50df56474c3125cf9fd187296838d2"
    },
    {
      "id": "bdf_projection",
      "url": "https://www.banque-france.fr/fr/publications-et-statistiques/publications/projections-macroeconomiques-intermediaires-septembre-2026",
      "sha256": "13f3544fdc89af3aad90a94ef538ab14847c3df3b79126ff647291ab71acf4c8"
    },
    {
      "id": "ecb_fsr",
      "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202605~50566915a7.en.html",
      "sha256": "85f33c3727d69f26c143ccfbfcc5c4eea2d0f7c586a4e51297917be9c60fb4bb"
    },
    {
      "id": "eba_q2",
      "url": "https://www.eba.europa.eu/publications-and-media/press-releases/eueea-banks-display-strength-amid-challenging-risk-environment",
      "sha256": "6b793502fb11887af70f4826cbbd6f2e93ca2d239ad73e23a91113303e181802"
    },
    {
      "id": "ecb_tpi",
      "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2022/html/ecb.pr220721~973e6e7273.en.html",
      "sha256": "3b39746800cf380231a6c5c678a45055edd725b0160f7e7ba7b189f239f8be11"
    }
  ]
}